Resource Depletion Model Simulations: Shortages & Prospect of Economic Crisis
Could a combination of population growth and depletion of mineral reserves lead to economic crises, depressions, or even a collapse of the world economy in the near future?
Some have tried to answer that question by using computer models. The Club of Rome 1972 standard-run simulation (a business-as-usual type of scenario) pointed to a world collapse in the second half of this century.
Resource Depletion Model Simulations: Shortages & Prospect of Economic Crisis (Book Excerpts)
It is not always easy to anticipate what the future will bring. Four
decades ago, the Club of Rome (a non-profit global thinktank)
issued a report which pointed at the possibility of a world collapse
halfway through the 21 st century (Limits to Growth, Meadows,
D.H., Meadows, D.L., Randers, J., et al., 1972)....
The simulations were... heavily criticized, often discredited as
gloom and doom scenarios. Some of the claims made by the
report's detractors were later found to be themselves exaggerated
when not entirely false....
In, A Comparison of the Limits to Growth With Thirty Years of
Reality, (2008), Graham Turner, a senior scientist at CSIRO
Sustainable Ecosystems, Canberra, Australia, compared three of
the original scenarios with actual data from the last 30 years to
determine the legitimacy and accuracy of the Limits to Growth
Turner... pointed out that many current developments, namely with respect to oil
reserves, climate change, and the prospect of food shortages, seem
to be trending similarly to the now 40-year-old simulations....