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Waves of the Future - The Magian Age

Climate Change, Non-Renewable Resources, Energy, Contaminants, Carbon Pricing...

Table of Contents
Non-Renewable Resources and Population Growth

The Depletion Wall: Non-Renewable Resources, Population Growth, and the Economics of Poverty

The reserves of non-renewable resources can be counted in years and decades, not centuries...
Mark C. Henderson.   ISBN: 978-0-9809989-2-4 ©2012 -- $4.95

More details below...

Table of Contents


Introduction 9

1. Waves of Change 15
Toffler's First Wave 15
Toffler's Second Wave 17
Medieval Markets and Price 18
Toffler's Third Wave 19
The Fourth Wave 19
The Fifth Wave 21
Resources and the Economy—A Historical Perspective 21
Crashing the World Economy 21
Crashing the World Economy Again 22
The Baby Boomers' Debt 23
The 20th Century's Environmental Record 24

2. The Green Economic Environment 27
The GEE's First Pillar: Resource Conservation 27
The Second Pillar: Revenue Neutrality 28
The Third Pillar: Depopulation 30
The Failure of the Economic System 31

3. Causes of the Collapse of Societies 35
How Societies Collapse 36
Causes of Social Decline and Collapse 36
Deforestation and Destruction of Habitats 37
Overfishing and Overhunting 38
Soil and Water Management 38
Population Growth 40
The Introduction of Non-Native Species 40
Four Modern Causes of Social Decline or Collapse 41
The Combination of Multiple Causes 43
Victims of Our Own Successes and Tainted Solutions 44
What Does the Future Hold? 45
The Human Factor 47

4. The Easter Island Road 49
Easter Island as Discovered by Europeans 49
What Really Happened on Easter Island? 50
Bone Studies 51
Pollen Studies 52
Charcoal Studies 52
The Easter Island Road 53
Timeline 54
Population 54
The Road to Self-Destruction 55

5. The Present and the Future 59
A Brief Assessment of the Present 59
Background: Limits to Growth 59
A Fourth-Wave Simulation 63
Erring on the Side of Caution 63
Corporations 64
Pollution 65
The World's Ultimate Sewage Lagoon 66
Renewable Resources 67
Non-Renewable Resources 67
The Context 67
Issues Relating to Reserve Estimates 69
Price 69
The Cost of Energy and Other Mining Inputs 70
The Total World Population 70
Science and Technology 71
Substitutability 72
Conservation and Recycling 75
Economic Growth 76
Manganese Nodules: The Last Frontier 76
World3: The Factors 77

6. Current Trends and Estimates 79
Resource Depletion 79
The Best-Case Scenario 79
A Second Scenario 81
A Third Scenario 81
A Fourth Scenario 82
The Issue of Economic Growth 90
The Wall Effect of Exponential Growth 91
A Potential Future 94
Important Considerations in Assessing Data 97
Just Too Horrible to Happen 98
A Reality Check 98
The Illusion of Coping 99
The Invisible Factors: Socioeconomic Capital 101
Hollywood Charity: The Double-Edged Sword 103
News Headlines on Mineral Reserves 104
On the Easter Island Road 105

7. Population Growth: The Continuing Madness 107
The Run-Away Train 107
Conflicts Within and Without 109
Evolving Values 110
Background on Population Growth 111
The Tragedy of the Commons 114
Ecological Cycles: People Die Second 116
The Point of Sustainable Balance 118

8. The End of the Road—Rwanda 123
The Official Story 123
The Underground Drama 125
The Malthusian Debate 128

9. Addressing the Problem of Population Growth 131
The United Nations and the International Community 132
How Far Do We Have to Go? 133
Consuming Like North Americans 135
Speed of Depopulation 137
Replacement Rate Issues 138
A Few Benchmarks for Reduction Targets 139
The Aging Baby Boomer Population 140

10. Depopulation Economics 143
Setting Reasonable Goals 143
The Myth of Larger Markets 144
The Changing Meaning of Market Scales 145
Improving Standards of Living: The Basic Principle 147
The Ultimate Proof 148
North American Immigration Policies 149
Depopulation Strategies 150
The Three-Pronged Growth-Freeze Strategy 151
The Three-Pronged Proportional-Growth-Reduction Strategy 152
The Three-Pronged Aggressive-Growth-Reduction Strategy 153
The Three-Pronged Aggressive-Population-Reduction Strategy 154
Unemployment and Productivity Management 154
The Two-Pronged Aggressive GEE Strategy 156

11. The Economics of Poverty 157
Issues and Options 157
Addressing the Age Crunch Problem 157
Addressing Pension Problems in Developing Countries 158
Sharing the Costs of Infrastructure 160
Unemployment and Productivity 162
Reducing Unemployment 163
Increasing Productivity 164
A Closer Integration of Education and Industry 165
Lightening Up the Education System Burden 166
A Universal Language 166
The Economics of Poverty 167

12. Depopulation: The Road Ahead 169
The Population Question: Perspectives 169
Approaches to Population Reduction 170
Immigration Issues 172
Foreign Aid 173

13. The Effects of Depopulation 175
Renewable Resources 175
Infrastructure 176
Pollution 176
The Corporate Sector 176
The Industry and the Economy 177
Real Estate 177
Food and Energy 178
Standards of Living 178
The Broad Picture 178
The Issue of Sustainability 179
A Working Definition of Sustainability 179
Destructive Economics 180

Conclusion 183
Bibliography 187

Copyright Waves of the Future, ©2012


More information: USGS Mineral Tables Degrowth Limits to Growth World Population Growth