Green Capitalism - Waves of the Future
Climate Change, Non-Renewable Resources, Energy, Contaminants, Carbon Pricing...Non-Renewable Resources: Mineral Supplies & Reserve Statistics
How long will current reserves of non-renewable resources like metals last?
The following tables offer various estimates of mineral supplies: reserves, reserve base, 0% growth, 2% growth...
The world's supply of many minerals is surprisingly low. Will metal shortages lead to economic crises like oil did or even collapse? If so, when?
See also Book I of the Waves of the Future Series
Non-Renewable Resources:
Mineral Supplies & Reserve Statistics
Resource Depletion Model Simulations:
Mineral Shortages & Prospect of Economic Crisis
Economics of Poverty
The Aging Baby Boomer Generation Problem
Non-Renewable Resources:
Mineral Supplies & Reserve Statistics (Book Excerpts)
Table 2. Years of supply left for certain minerals based on reserves and annual production using data from USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, 2011.
| Mineral | Average Annual Produc-tion 2009-2010 | Reserves USGS 2011 | Years of Supply Lomborg 0% Growth | Years of Supply Bench-mark 0% Growth | Years of Supply Diederen 2% Growth | Years of Supply Latest 2.57% Growth |
| Iron Ore (MMT) | 2,320 | 180,000 | 215 | 78 | 46 | 42 |
| Cobalt (TMT)* | 80 | 7,300 | 320 | 91 | 57 | 46 |
| Aluminum (MMT)* | 205 | 28,000 | 230 | 137 | 63 | 58 |
| Silver (MT) | 22,000 | 510,000 | 15 | 23 | 10 | 18 |
| Gold (MT) | 2,475 | 51,000 | 18 | 21 | 13 | 16 |
| Zinc (TMT) | 11,600 | 250,000 | 42 | 22 | 13 | 17 |
| Tin (TMT)* | 261 | 5,200 | 47 | 20 | 15 | 15 |
| Copper (TMT) | 16,050 | 630,000 | 43 | 39 | 23 | 26 |
| Nickel (TMT)* | 1,475 | 76,000 | 117 | 52 | 28 | 32 |
Figures are adjusted for 2011. The data for aluminum includes bauxite and alumina sources only. Some of the minerals are more complex to assess than others, and the definitions used here may not match exactly those of Diederen or Lomborg. Source: USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries, 2011. MT = Metric Tons; TMT = Thousand Metric Tons; MMT = Million Metric Tons; BMT = Billion Metric Tons.
[Note: Lomborg's data is calculated in years of consumption at stable 1997 levels and assumes 0% growth. At 2% growth, the 14 years between 1997 and 2011 alone would add up to a 28% increase in consumption. As such, Lomborg's data should not be viewed as realistic.]...
Table 3. Year of depletion [reserves]. A comparison of the four dataset estimates of the final year of supply of select minerals.
| Mineral | Lomborg Based on Reserve Base 0% Growth | Benchmark Based on Reserves 0% Growth | Diederen Based on Reserves 2% Growth | Latest Data Based on Reserves 2.57% Growth |
| Iron Ore (MMT) | 2225 | 2088 | 2056 | 2052 |
| Cobalt (TMT)* | 2330 | 2101 | 2067 | 2056 |
| Aluminum (MMT)* | 2240 | 2147 | 2073 | 2068 |
| Silver (MT) | 2025 | 2033 | 2020 | 2028 |
| Gold (MT) | 2028 | 2031 | 2023 | 2026 |
| Zinc (TMT) | 2052 | 2032 | 2023 | 2027 |
| Tin (TMT)* | 2057 | 2030 | 2025 | 2025 |
| Copper (TMT) | 2053 | 2049 | 2033 | 2036 |
| Nickel (TMT)* | 2027 | 2062 | 2038 | 2042 |
The data for aluminum includes bauxite and alumina sources only. Some of the minerals are more complex to assess than others, and the definitions used here may not match exactly those of Diederen or Lomborg. MT = Metric Tons; TMT = Thousand Metric Tons; MMT = Million Metric Tons; BMT = Billion Metric Tons.